Well, it’s election time again. In America, for better or for worse, a major election is never more than two years away. Where I live, I’ve been getting an obscene amount of political flyers in the mail. It seems like political campaigns are singlehandedly keeping the post office afloat.
If we’re totally honest here, there are problems that politicians cause and there are problems that they don’t cause but still get blamed for. For instance, the President usually gets credit for, or blamed for, the economy, regardless of whether or not their policies are behind its current health. Right now the economy is sputtering pretty hard, and an increasing number of economists are predicting some kind of recession in 2023. Unless you work at the Fed, there’s not a whole lot anyone (including politicians) can do about that. That’s just kind of the reality right now, but if you’re running for office, it’s your job to try to get more votes than your opponent. One way candidates are doing that right now is by saying “if my opponent gets elected, they’re going to crash the economy!” I’ve got news for you. The economy’s going to crash regardless of who’s in office. Don’t make your decision based on that argument. Pay more attention to who’s likely to get us back out of a recession without taking on a whole lot of additional debt.
Global economics are evolving. China’s role in the global economy is looking like it’s going to morph into something different. Xi Jinping has just been elected to a third five-year term in China, and that’s a pretty huge deal. They had to change the laws in China to allow this to happen. He’s a staunch Communist, and the changes he’s made in China have been pretty brutal for Chinese citizens. For the past decade or two, China’s been exploding in economic growth, and that’s been good for the country, but Xi has now accumulated enough power to be able to start exerting more control over businesses. His own speeches suggest he wants to close the wealth gap, which sounds great, but what that really means is that he wants to put everybody on the same economic level: poor. Communism can’t thrive if you’ve got a lot of innovators, free-thinkers, and billionaires, so he’s got to lock all of that down and bring it under state control.
On top of that, Xi has pledged to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. This is a little misleading, because “reunification” implies a reuniting, but the Chinese Government has never controlled Taiwan. For all intents and purposes, Taiwan is a separate country from China, but the U.S. position is to recognize the “one China” policy. I think maybe it’s time to change our policy, even though that would draw a tremendous amount of anger from China. Here’s the kicker…because of the strange demographics of China (especially decades of the “one child” policy), the average age of China’s population is about to increase very quickly, and the number of military-aged citizens are going to start dropping fast. That’s the long way of saying that China fully intends to control Taiwan, and if it’s going to do it through force, it has to be very soon.
This election may very well decide who is in office at the time this attempt takes place. I’m not sure how close he is to being ready to pull the trigger, but Xi’s best move would probably be to give the green light during the lame duck period…between the election and when the newly elected officials get sworn in.
Then there’s this Russia/Ukraine thing. The whole thing has been a disaster for Putin. The guy is an evil dude, but despite appearances, he’s not crazy. He’s a rational guy, but his rationale operates very differently than yours or mine might. He’s painted himself into a corner and there’s no way for him to achieve his objectives without doing some pretty unconventional things or taking a major hit to his credibility at home. His army is in shambles, his partial mobilization of everyday Russian citizens isn’t going well, and Russia probably faces a decades-long path to rebuilding itself militarily and economically (if that’s even possible). Running out of options, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that Putin employs nuclear weapons in Ukraine if his forces keep taking shots on the chin. I don’t mean the big, multi-megaton “crowdpleasers,” I’m talking much smaller battlefield/tactical nukes. That’s still a big deal, don’t get me wrong, but perhaps not as big a deal as the average citizen may perceive it as. Any way you slice it, a mushroom cloud is something we don’t want to see, but we may be getting closer to seeing one on the news.
Those are some of the things that are happening abroad. In addition to our economy, we’re still trying to untangle snarled logistics chains. The Mississippi River is so low that barge traffic has been drastically reduced. Many of you may have heard about the diesel shortage that’s about to start hitting, probably later this month. Diesel powers most 18-wheelers, locomotives, farm equipment, and other major engines (construction vehicles, large delivery vehicles that supply gasoline to gas stations, etc.) that are crucial to the flow of products across the logistics network. The shortage doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re going to run out of diesel fuel, it means we’ve got a smaller margin for error when keeping the fuel flowing. As fuel becomes less plentiful, the shortage doesn’t hit all at once; the shortage starts manifesting itself in pockets of scarcity. Farmers, for example, will have to start making choices about what type of equipment to use if they don’t have enough fuel to run everything. Truckers will have to compete for a smaller supply (so do your Christmas shopping early before prices spike even higher or logistics routes take a further hit). If any other headwinds hit the diesel industry, we’ve got major problems.
Again, the people you’re voting for this election cycle could very well be the ones facing the tough choices to be made in such cases. God knows who will be sworn in, and those people won’t take office without His say so. It’s very easy to criticize our elected leaders, and we forget that they’re people with the same limitations that you or I have, but they also have some brutal decisions to make. In addition to praying for the elections coming up on Tuesday, please pray for wisdom and moral clarity for all of our leaders currently in office. Things aren’t getting any better, and we need people with God-honoring values in power if we want God’s blessing on our nation once again.
Lord, thank you that You’re in control and I’m not. Please bless the pending election and put the right people in office, whatever party they’re from. Our land is very divided right now and the world seems like it’s on fire. Please bring peace and revival to this place. In Your name, Amen.