The other day my daughter pointed out to me that 2024 is starting out an awful lot like 2020 did. The 49ers are playing the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. This month has an extra day at the end because it’s a leap year. It’s looking more and more likely that it’s going to be a Biden/Trump presidential election. And at least at this point in the year, the Olympics are scheduled to take place this summer as long as a worldwide pandemic doesn’t change things.
Well obviously, I don’t have the inside track on how any of those things are going to turn out (though I’m hoping the 49ers can pull off a win over the Chiefs). Despite not liking to put many political posts on this blog, I feel it’s important to sometimes address things before they happen, hopefully helping you to prepare mentally for what’s ahead.
President Biden is polling abysmally right now. I mean, it’s bad. He listens to extremist advisors and espouses policies that are difficult to justify if the goal is to make America and its economy better (raise energy prices, force electric vehicle adoption in a market that isn’t interested, ban gas appliances, forfeit energy independence, etc.). Between many of his supporters wanting him to do more to punish Israel, along with Independents (and a big chunk of Democrats) saying “you know, I think you’ve gone too far with the border situation,” he’s got a shrinking pool of people he can rely on. At this rate, his only real chance is to make the other Presidential candidates look even less appealing than he does.
Nikki Haley is still in the race, but she’s going to have to pull off some convincing wins here very soon if she wants to realistically remain in the conversation. If she somehow pulls off a massive upset and gains the GOP nomination, Biden’s going to have his hands full trying to convince the country that he can do a better job than she can. I don’t really see her being much more than a nuisance to former President Trump on his path to the nomination, though.
I’m not sure of the latest numbers, but at one point there were over 90 criminal counts pending against Trump. That’s not a small thing. If he’s guilty, he should face the consequences. I do question the timing of the four cases, though. It strikes me as odd that no charges were brought until after it was evident he’d be running again. It seems suspicious that everything seemed to hit at once, almost as though it was a coordinated effort to keep someone in the courtroom rather than the campaign trail and force them to use money on legal defense instead of being used elsewhere. Between that “legal coordination” and attempts to keep him off ballots, I don’t feel it’s Trump that poses the biggest threat of election interference or threat to democracy.
Now I can’t honestly say I know what all those charges are, but based on the sheer number of them I’ve got to imagine he’ll be convicted on at least one of them. Those are all felony counts. Here I’m showing my ignorance on the legal system, but I would think that not all felonies are created equal. There are different levels of “badness” in the felony category. If he’s convicted of the most minor felony count, it can still truthfully be said that he’s been found guilty of a felony (even if he appeals and wins). If that happens, that’s the only thing you’re going to hear out of the White House, out of Biden surrogates, and from protesters between now and the election. They’ll hope a felony conviction of any sort will be enough to cause a sizable portion of voters to withhold their support from him.
This may just shape up to be a contest to see who can avoid looking the worst. Trump’s facing 90+ felonies, but Biden just got caught either lying to the American people or showing that he doesn’t quite have a solid grasp of the situation. Regarding the border bill that fell apart earlier this week, Biden has repeatedly claimed that its passage is necessary to empower him before he can solve the border crisis. The last president somehow managed to do quite a bit to secure the border, and the Democratic Senate that’s been in power since then hasn’t taken away any of the President’s powers. My guess is that Biden will tighten up the border just enough to say “look, we’ve reduced the number of people crossing into the U.S.” to try to take away Trump’s biggest weapon, and you’ll hear “felony, felony, felony” or “fascist white supremacist” about Trump.
Also like we saw in 2020, there are probably a lot of people that are going to say “I don’t like either candidate.” In an interesting turn of events, this year there’s a third-party candidate that’s benefitting quite a bit from a general dislike of the two-party system. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is picking up some steam. He comes from a more traditional Democratic platform, from before extremists took over the party. At this point he’s the most centrist candidate in the race, and he’s gaining support from people on both sides (though more of that support probably comes from Democrats). As we draw closer to the election in November he’s probably going to get more attention because a lot of what he says makes sense to people who are looking for less drama out of the White House.
What I’m about to say assumes that Kennedy gets a LOT more support between now and November, so keep that in mind as you read it. Presidential candidates win elections by gaining more than half of the nation’s 538 electoral college votes. You need 270 to win. If RFK Jr. peels off a state or two, he could conceivably prevent any candidate from reaching 270 electoral votes. In that case, the outcome of the election gets tossed over to the House of Representatives.
To reiterate, we’re talking about kind of a long-shot scenario here. If the House gets to pick the next president, it’s going to be under tremendous pressure to “do the right thing.” The “right thing,” however, is open to interpretation. Is it the candidate that got the greatest number of electoral votes? Is it the candidate that got the most popular votes? Will it come down to a party-line vote, and if so, how will that work if a few of the representatives are in the hospital or are otherwise unavailable in one of the narrowest House margins in history?
It’s still a very difficult time in our nation’s history. There’s no candidate that everyone will support. We’re stuck once again with picking the least bad option. No matter what party is in power, please pray for our president and officials in Congress. God allowed them to be there, so please pray for His hand on them, steering them toward what He wants to accomplish.
Lord, thank you for the blessings we enjoy by living in this country. I ask that You watch over our nation’s leaders, give them wisdom, and help them make God-honoring decisions. I ask in Your name, amen.