It’s time to take another look at the political landscape and how the 2024 election is shaping up.
Let’s not mince words. Despite Donald Trump’s recent conviction, Joe Biden is the one playing catch up. He recently tied the lowest approval rating of his presidency. His numbers went underwater with the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and they never looked back. The economy is this election’s number one issue, and far more voters trust Trump than Biden there. The only thing Biden really has going for him is the fact that he’s not Donald Trump. He doesn’t inspire much optimism and he doesn’t get people jazzed to head to the polls to vote for his vision of higher taxes, continued illegal immigration, boys competing in girls’ sports, letting violent criminals go unprosecuted, and switching gasoline engines to electric motors using a power grid ill-equipped to support them. If you’re a Democratic strategist taking a sober look at an administration who’s pushed too far left too quickly, your greatest hope, frankly, is for Trump’s recent conviction to sour enough people on him that it lifts Biden in the polls.
I think I’ve predicted in the past Biden would take just enough action to make it look like he was trying to get something done to secure the border. Well, now he has, with an Executive Order cutting back the level of illegal immigration from “inexcusable” to merely “overwhelming.” This is a bad political move for Biden. It’s far too late for his weak executive actions to have much effect at the border, but it’s strong enough to anger many “dissolve the border” enthusiasts planning to vote for him. There’s no real upside. He’s not actually interested in stemming the flow of illegal migration into the country; if he were, he would have taken much stronger executive action, and he would have done it years ago. He’s merely doing this to make it look like he’s tired of waiting for Congress to take action, and like he’s exhibiting strong leadership. (Strangely, the last president managed to take plenty of executive action to secure the southern border.)
I’m going to predict things will play out something like the following manner. Trump’s recent conviction won’t move the polling needle nearly as much as democratic strategists hoped. There will be an initial drop where Biden regains some advantage, but over time that advantage will fade in the polls and the “justice impacted” Trump will obtain an obvious advantage in the polls. As it becomes clear the conviction failed to derail Trump’s candidacy, Democrats will panic. The Democratic National Convention, where the Democratic nominee is officially crowned, isn’t held until August. Even though Americans tend to pay less attention to politics during the summer, it will become harder and harder to hide Biden’s physical and cognitive decline between now and then (in the past month, he’s departed both a college graduation and D-Day commemoration earlier than planned, looking very confused and frail in the process). The preference, obviously, would be for President Biden to withdraw from the race gracefully, of his own volition, citing health challenges and the frenetic pace of campaign season. Nobody can fault him for it; most Americans, if given a choice, would want to retire early, not have one of the most stressful jobs in the world until they’re 86. If his polling numbers don’t show any signs of improvement and he still doesn’t want to call it a career, the king-makers in the Democratic Party are going to have to get creative in coming up with a way to get enough public support to switch him out for some other candidate. If people get excited about change (in this case, Trump over Biden), it’s better to roll the dice and take a chance than it is to bet on a horse almost certain to lose. At this point I don’t know how they would do that, but two possibilities that come to mind are the President’s obvious health challenges and his son’s recent conviction. If the President’s health takes a turn for the worse or he pardons/commutes his son’s sentence even though he said he wouldn’t, the Democratic National Committee may suddenly use that event to say “we need a more energetic candidate to take on Trump” or “we can’t make a big deal of Trump’s legal woes if our candidate has questionable legal baggage of his own.” Success in swapping out candidates that late in the game would either depend on widespread name recognition (think someone like Michelle Obama) or a great resume (maybe a Democratic governor who capitalizes on some well-timed success with national visibility).
Regardless, it’s tough to imagine Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping restraining their military or other activities out of respect for Biden’s charisma, savvy, and strong leadership. Look for actions from both of those dictators to intensify before the elections take place, because they’d rather deal with Biden than Trump and they want to get away with stuff before the possibility of a new sheriff arriving in town. If you want an interesting perspective on President Biden’s physical and mental abilities, listen to what people in their 80s have to say about it. Spoiler alert: they’re usually alarmed that someone with his symptoms is the one everyone looks to in a crisis, because they often know someone with similar conditions, and those folks don’t perform well in high-pressure, rapidly changing situations.
It’s also interesting to see the misinformation from our own American news sources. For example, news networks have often spouted something about Trump being a threat to democracy, but they don’t call attention to the threats Democrats pose. Yes, Trump gave a speech that agitated people right before they rioted at the Capitol, but who has actually tried to bar a candidate from ballots in some locations, or entangle him in oddly timed court cases so he can’t be out on the campaign trail? These are legitimate threats to democracy; this is like, Soviet stuff. If this is what preserving democracy looks like, they’re sacrificing democracy to save democracy. This mischaracterization tactic isn’t just being used in the United States. In Europe, elections earlier this week shifted the power balance toward the political right, and people unhappy with the outcome are crying that this, too, is a threat to democracy. No, this is what’s known as the fulfillment of democracy, respecting the electorate’s choice. What’s being threatened is the power of the party losing seats. Those are two very different things.
Finally, what are we, as a nation, likely to face in the 2025-2028 presidential term? As I list these things, think about the kind of person you want sitting in the Oval Office, and the fortitude, clarity of thinking, and capacity for decision making each of the two major candidates possess.
Putin and Belarus may resume nuclear testing to increase alarm and try to fracture the NATO alliance or gain an advantage in Ukraine (maybe by inciting Ukraine to use up all its remaining air defense missiles because it doesn’t know whether or not incoming strikes include conventional explosives or nuclear explosives).
China has claimed this is the timeframe it will take Taiwan by force. Anticipate Chinese forces blockading, invading, and seizing Taiwan, which will likely lead to the most intense U.S. military action in the Pacific in decades, along with a potential direct military confrontation with a hostile superpower.
There’s a high potential for an economic downturn in the U.S. as a prolonged period of elevated interest rates finally catches up with and affects the nation’s economy.
Those are some of the biggies. There are other things which will affect everyday Americans on a less certain timeline, but are nonetheless noteworthy:
The convergence of advancements in block chain, Artificial Intelligence, medical technology, materials processing (3D printing), and robotics will develop quickly and could rapidly impose major changes on our daily lives. We need to balance responsibility with the ability to innovate, so we can be competitive without our less ethical or less regulated competitors leaving us in the dust.
NASA will physically return astronauts to the moon for the first time in over 50 years at a time when lunar missions from various nations and other “space race” activities intensify.
The Kansas City Chiefs will finally fail to make it to the Super Bowl again (hopefully).
There’s a lot to think about. Pray for our leaders (and potential leaders), even if you don’t vote for them. Our leaders make decisions and take actions that affect us all, so pray God gives them wisdom and clarity in knowing what to do.