It Looks Like Iran has Been in the News Lately

Lots of big stuff is happening in the news. I’m going to take a little time and just explain a bit about Iran. If you’re already familiar, my apologies, but I thought it would be good to just give a basic overview of the situation.

So, where to begin? The Iranian Government has been behind much (not all) of the turmoil of the Middle East over the past few decades. The Government which was in place a week or two ago hates two countries: Israel and the United States. Iran is the classic state sponsor of terrorism; if it can’t directly engage in war with its enemies, it funds terrorist groups that do. It funds Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Israel knows this, and every time it gets attacked by Hamas or Hezbollah, it knows Iran’s really behind it all.

For a long time, Iran has had a nuclear program, claiming it’s for peaceful purposes (power generation, nuclear medicine, etc.). The problem, though, is that it’s spent a lot of time and effort enriching Uranium to a very high level, and there’s no purpose to going through so much trouble other than for the construction of a nuclear device. A nuclear reactor used for generating electricity does not require such highly enriched fuel, and there’s no point in stockpiling so much Uranium for medicinal purposes. It’s bomb material, pure and simple. You can see how this, along with advancements to Iran’s ballistic missile program, makes Israel very nervous. Leaders in the U.S. and/or Israel may have received some intelligence about pending developments on this, prompting the recent action against Iran.

Strategically, Iran is physically located at a very important spot. It has the ability to shut down a maritime bottleneck (the Strait of Hormuz) through which a very large percentage of the world’s oil gets shipped. Tanker vessels carrying oil from Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, and others transit this bottleneck every day. Iran can try to shut down all traffic transiting the Strait and hold the oil hostage until it gets what it wants, or until somebody forces the Strait back open. Iran’s navy has taken a beating since hostilities commenced, but even without large vessels it can still launch missiles from shore at ships that try to transit the Strait. Incidentally, China needs a lot of oil, and it previously got a large percentage of its oil imports from Venezuela and from Iran at discounted rates. Now that both of those gravy trains have stopped flowing and nobody wants to send oil through the Strait of Hormuz, China’s going to start making a lot of noise about opening the Strait back up again.

The United States has a history of involvement in Iran’s internal affairs. In the 1950s the CIA helped pull off a coup that installed a leader friendly to the United States and its interests (mostly regarding oil and oil infrastructure). This led to an uprising among the younger generation a couple of decades later, when the U.S.-installed Shah was sidelined and Iran’s recent government model took power during the Islamic Revolution of 1979. It established a Theocracy, with an Ayatollah in charge of the nation. A president is also present, but the appointed-for-life Ayatollah makes the decisions.

Over time the demographics in Iran have worked against the Government. Although the religious enthusiasm of the revolutionaries in 1979 swept them into power, today’s under-45 population is much less interested in the morality police and would rather not deal with the crippling sanctions their government’s policies have incurred from the international community. Uprisings have sputtered to life, only to be put down by a sophisticated and brutal security apparatus. Networks of secret police, informants, morality police, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) put down uprisings through fear, violence, and intimidation.

President Trump is keenly aware of Americans’ distaste for another multi-decade conflict in the Middle East. He appears content to remove the nation’s current rulers to give the general population an opportunity to rise up and establish its own version of government. I don’t have insight into the President’s actual plan, but a major sticking point here is that everyday citizens in Iran do not have access to firearms, and that makes it very tricky for them to overthrow the armed security apparatus. In all likelihood, the theocratic element of Iran’s Government will come to an end (the role of Ayatollah and clerics will be greatly diminished), but the apparatus put in place to maintain the theocracy’s survival will likely take charge in some capacity. If that’s true, Iran will trade a religious authoritarian government for a secular authoritarian government. We’ll see just how willing President Trump is to continue remotely disrupting the power of the establishment in Iran. Eventually, the theory goes, they’ll have enough of the struggle, and they will surrender. An opposition must emerge somehow, either organically within Iran or the descendents of the Shah who was ousted in 1979.

This is a pretty fluid situation and I’m sure things will change by the time this entry gets posted, but President Trump said he expects this operation to last four or five weeks. War Secretary Pete Hegseth stated the objectives of the operation to be threefold: 1. destroy Iranian missiles/missile production, 2. destroy Iran’s navy and other security infrastructure, and 3. they will never have nuclear weapons. Destroy the missile threat, destroy the navy, no nukes. All three of those goals have been brought much closer to reality, but now we have an Iranian military and IRGC who are armed with missiles and are scared and/or motivated to take action. A lot of missiles seem like they’re getting launched, but there doesn’t seem to be much of a strategy behind the launches other than lashing out at anyone who doesn’t help them.

Like I said, it’s a highly fluid situation. There are a lot of articles and a lot of TV coverage about this story, but there’s not always a lot of information to report, so you’ll see and hear a lot of words that aren’t really telling you many concrete facts. Be on the lookout for how Russia and China play this one, what governments in neighboring nations do, and what kind of opposition groups start emerging as serious contenders to take part in a new government. Obviously, there’s much more to come on this topic, so keep an eye on big developments.

When Was the Last Time Most Americans Agreed on Anything?

When was the last time the majority of Americans agreed on anything?

I’ll get to that in a moment. I have to start wading through some controversial territory to get there; I’ll try to lay it out in a neutral way so you can be better informed.

Whether you call them illegal immigrants or undocumented workers, the topic has been in the news quite a bit lately. Our nation was built on the backs of immigrants, certainly, but there’s a very large difference between the legal and illegal versions of migration into the United States. I don’t want to go too far down this rabbit hole; suffice it to say Democrats are widely in favor of encouraging vast numbers of undocumented workers into the country, and Republicans are widely opposed to it. What’s the rationale here?

Every 10 years, the U.S. performs a census. We want to see how many people live in our country, where they live, and as much demographic data about age, income, household size, ethnicity, etc. as we can easily collect. Ok cool, that sounds reasonable. One of the things the government does with that data is re-apportion congressional representation among the states according to population. Every state gets two senators regardless of how many people live in each state, but aside from that, the more people reside in a state, the more representatives they’ll have in Congress. For example, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming don’t have very many people living there, so they barely have any representation in the House of Representatives. Each of those states gets two electoral points for each senator, plus one point for a congressional representative, for a total of three Electoral College points each. California, Texas, and Florida, on the other hand, have very large populations. Accordingly, there are a lot of congressional districts, and a lot of Electoral College points, associated with those states. I’m sure you’ve watched as the Electoral College map gets filled in on presidential election nights. The states with the largest population are worth the most electoral votes.

California is the single most important state on the Electoral College map. It’s worth more points than any other state. A presidential candidate has to win 270 points in the Electoral College, and right now California accounts for 54 of them. That is, until the next census occurs.

Contrary to the best interest of the American electorate, it turns out congressional representation is not based on how many American citizens reside in a given state; it’s based instead on how many people, including non-citizens, live there. Due to its policies that result in a high cost of living, American citizens have been leaving California for years. They can leave California, but if additional people, citizen or otherwise, move in, it will mitigate the loss of electoral points. If your party normally wins California but people are leaving it in droves, what’s one possible solution to maintaining population levels? Facilitate the arrival of undocumented migrants in areas otherwise losing populations. Doing so tinkers with the census results, which subsequently affects the electoral math.

So what is it the majority of Americans are agreeing on?

It’s a slightly different, but still related topic. What’s your view on having to prove your identity and eligibility when you register to vote? Do you think you should be able to just show up and state your name and address, or should there be something a little more stringent where you have to prove you’re eligible to vote in an election?

According to a recent Pew poll, this is not a controversial topic at all. Overall, 83% of Americans (71% of Democrats and 95% of Republicans) are in favor of having a requirement for voter ID. The numbers are also high when broken down by race. Harry Enten of CNN has been quoted as saying “The bottom line is this: Voter ID is NOT controversial in this country. A photo ID to vote is NOT controversial in this country. It is not controversial by party and it is not controversial by race. The vast majority of Americans agree.”

Why, then, is there so much opposition to it by members of one of our two major political parties on Capitol Hill? Because it reduces opportunities to operate in the margins. When voter rolls are pretty slim, it’s fairly easy to ensure there isn’t any funny business going on regarding fraud in an election. When the voter rolls are swollen, it increases the opportunity for voting shenanigans. Election officials are just like any other job…there never seems to be enough hands to cover the basics. As long as everyone’s acting in good faith and playing by the rules, it’s wonderful to have high percentages of eligible voters participating in their civic rights. Not everyone plays by the rules, however, and fraud is more difficult to catch when it’s hidden among extensive numbers of registered voters in an understaffed voting location.

It may not be a 100% solution, but there’s a bill which has already passed the House, called the “Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act,” which aims to make it mandatory to be able to prove citizenship when registering to vote in elections. Again, only American citizens are eligible to vote in American elections. The various states are allowed to run their elections how they want, but they’re all supposed to have a process that ensures only American citizens can cast votes. Not all states have a stringent process. It might be a stretch to say there’s widespread fraud, but fraud does exist. The SAVE Act would establish minimum requirements for registering to vote (strict photo ID requirements and proof of citizenship). The downside is that even American citizens who are eligible to vote may not have easy access to the required proof (not everybody has a passport, for example, and there are plenty of people who wouldn’t be able to easily find their birth certificate). The requirements aren’t particularly onerous; you usually need to provide similar proof when starting a new job. While you don’t always need to have citizenship to get a photo ID, the SAVE Act would mean you must prove citizenship to register to vote. In theory, the combination of secure voter registration and legitimate photo ID should help minimize fraud at the polls.

This doesn’t quite cover everything related to election controversy these days (numerous states are looking at redrawing their congressional districts to manipulate which party wins the district), but hopefully it will help keep you informed as you hear about the SAVE Act in the coming days/weeks. Remember that it’s not the news media’s job to keep you informed on all sides of an issue; it’s the news media’s job to get high ratings and sell advertising space. Straightforward, honest reporting doesn’t draw an audience, but controversy and outrage do. Hopefully this will help you keep the facts straight as you keep an eye on the latest developments.

Provoking on Purpose

When I was a kid we played “Capture the Flag” in our youth group at church a lot. Our church’s yard had a sidewalk running right down the middle, and it made a great “no-man’s land.” We’d have people from both teams come right up to, and even walk along, the sidewalk. If you were standing on it you could set one foot into the other team’s territory without fear of being tagged out. As soon as you left the safety of the sidewalk, though, you were fair game.

We’d try different tactics to try to get an advantage over the other team. We’d have one or two people charge the boundary but stop before crossing it, drawing attention while someone further down the line raced into enemy territory. We’d swarm the boundary, but then have all but one or two people stop before crossing. The idea was to provoke the defenders to jump after these people, and then others from the horde would see their chance and join the assault while the defenders’ attention was diverted.

Usually there’d be a small handful of people on either team that were focused on strategy. You also had a portion who didn’t much care for strategy, but instead just looked for opportunities to start trouble. Then finally, you had what I’d call the “reluctant participants.” They didn’t really want to play this game, so they were just sort of enduring it until it was over.

Most of the provocative tactics involved coming right up to that line and ratcheting up the tension. The strategic thinkers didn’t intend to cross it, but they also knew that in the heat of the moment, there would be enthusiastic teammates who would take it upon themselves to muster up the extra zeal to do what others didn’t seem willing or able to do. For the strategists it was partly manipulation, but it was also partly to see if they could get anything useful out of the unplanned developments. If a teammate was able to grab the flag and get back, so much the better…the team won. If, on the other hand, they got hurt somehow during the assault, the rest of the team got to grandstand and point fingers at how aggressively and unsportsmanlike the defending team was playing. The manipulators of the group were able to crank up the tension, inspire others to “cross that line,” and if any of their teammates got hurt in the process, they’d be able to say “well this wasn’t my fault, I never told anybody to do anything like that.”

We’ve got the same kind of thing happening in protests all around the country. Right now the hot-button issue is whether to interfere with ICE operations. I’m not sure how to state this any clearer: the law is the law; if you have an issue with a given law, you should focus on getting it changed. Interfering with law enforcement operations is illegal; if you interfere, you’re guilty of a crime. You’re an accomplice. It shouldn’t be a surprise that you’ll be treated like a criminal during the response. When you resist or provoke law enforcement officers, they have no idea who you are, what your intent is, or how violent you are. Since they have zero insight into those things, if you get into a confrontation which looks to be escalating, they’re forced to assume you’re willing to escalate further and faster than they are. It’s a failure of common sense to ratchet up the tension with someone who’s legally authorized to use deadly force if they feel threatened.

Where I take issue is the politicians’ intentional manipulation of the masses. Did you ever see the classic movie “The Sting” with Paul Newman and Robert Redford? They were two con men trying to pull off a big score, and they had a large cast of supporting characters. They had a visual signal among those in the know…kind of a brushing of the finger along the nose. It was sort of a wink and a nod to others who were in on the con. Politicians seem to be intentionally cranking up the pressure on the issue, stopping just short of calling for violence. Their winks and secret signals tell the organizers to set the stage. The mob mentality which comes along with protests takes it from there, and those who are a little more enthusiastic than others end up crossing the line of safety.

This persistent state of elevated hostility is how we get assassination attempts and fatal confrontations with law enforcement. Then, after something tragic has occurred, people blame the other side of provoking the situation. This foments more tension and hate, further perpetuating the problem.

How do we stop the madness of this cycle? I’m not sure there’s a simple answer to that. First and foremost, don’t contribute to an angry environment. That goes for discussions at work, discussions among your most trusted inner circle, anywhere you go…attack ideas, not people. Squash or redirect discussions that focus animosity on people. Ideas, not people, should be the subject of criticism. Secondly, hold your elected officials accountable. The people you voted for shouldn’t be out there stoking an atmosphere of violence and be able to avoid responsibility for it. Let them know you don’t approve. This is an uphill battle, because hot-button issues are good for fund-raising; it’s often not in a politician’s best interest to tone things down or actually solve problems, because if you solve problems, you can’t run on them in the next election. You may need to call your elected officials’ office so often they start recognizing who you are by the sound of your voice.

As Americans, we enjoy a lot of freedoms. Not every country allows its citizens to criticize the government, or to assemble in protest. I think we’ve taken some things for granted and pushed things too far. We’re still fellow countrymen (and neighbors), even if we don’t always agree. Don’t buy into the idea that if someone disagrees with you, you have to write off everything about them. We can still get along with each other even when we see things differently, and that’s one of the hallmarks of being American, and one of the things that makes our country great.

Should A Christian Support Israel?

Should Christians support Israel? Boy, there’s a can of worms.

Well, there’s a lot to it, but the short version is…generally yes. God gives both conditional (“if you do this, I will do that, but if you stop doing this, I will stop doing that”) and unconditional (“I’m doing this regardless of what you do”) promises. Genesis 12:1-3 contains an unconditional promise God gave to Abram when He told him what He was going to do through the man:

Now the Lord had said to Abram: “Get out of your country, from your family and from your father’s house, to a land that I will show you. I will make you a great nation; I will bless you and make your name great; and you shall be a blessing. I will bless those who bless you, and I will curse him who curses you; and in you all the families of the earth shall be blessed.

I mean…there you go. The most neutral option you can take is to be indifferent about it, but if you go that route, you’re kind of avoiding behavior you know God wants to encourage (you just read it, taken right from scripture). So in this case, even neutrality is a form of disobedience.

Years later, Genesis 17:8 records God again talking to Abram (now Abraham): “Also I give to you and your descendants after you the land in which you are a stranger, all the land of Canaan, as an everlasting possession; and I will be their God.” You could say the descendants of Abraham have an everlasting divine claim to the land.

So how does that square with all the heat Israel’s been taking over the past few years with its involvement in Gaza?

Well, I wouldn’t say it’s complicated, but I’d say we have to zoom way out to look at history and the prophesied future of Israel. In the Old Testament, the Israelites’ disobedience led to their being kicked out of the land and taken as captives to foreign nations. They were eventually allowed to return, and they reestablished the country, though the temple was a much reduced version of its former glory. Skip ahead to the New Testament and the Israelites still occupied the land. The Romans controlled it, and they even destroyed Jerusalem in AD 70, after most of the New Testament was written.

But what about the events that have happened after Bible times? It’s been almost 2,000 years since the latest books of the Bible were written. There’s been plenty of time where God’s chosen people weren’t ruling, or even occupying, the land. More recently (say, around the year 1900) the land of Israel/Palestine was controlled by the Ottoman Empire, a Muslim state, who was not fond of giving up territory for the sake of establishing a Jewish nation. Its alliance with Germany led to defeat and subsequent loss of support after World War I, and the British began forcibly making room in Palestine for the Jews, making lots of enemies in the process. Skipping ahead to 1948, Israel became a nation again and has remained so ever since. The nation is currently run by a secular government; while many devout Jews (and some Christians) live there now, the term “Jewish” in Israel generally refers more to an ethnic term than to religious beliefs.

Here’s the short version: the Jews are God’s chosen people, and will one day fulfill His original desire of having them be the ones to proclaim the Messiah. In Romans 11:25-26, Paul notes a future mass Jewish revival…all of Israel will be saved. So that means there will still be a sizable Jewish presence at that time, but we don’t know any details of what occurs to the physical land of Israel between now and then. Israelites have lost control of it in the past and could very well do so again between now and the mass revival, we just don’t know.

So we know the land of Israel will one day undergo mass revival, and we know that hasn’t occurred yet. In the meantime, the country, like any other country, is ruled by imperfect people. They’ll make bad choices sometimes. We don’t have to agree with everything they do, but they should generally enjoy the support of Christ-followers (barring decisions that go against what we know God’s will to be, as in things that run counter to scripture).

How Did We Get This Bad?

Well, the Charlie Kirk saga has been covered pretty extensively by now, but I figured I’d throw in my two cents, too. Prior to a week or two ago, I don’t think I’d even heard of him, but now he’s a household name.

Sorry, but I have to get political in this post. I ordinarily try to avoid that, but it seems necessary to help explain some of this. There’s an old political saying that goes something like: “If you aren’t a liberal when you’re young, you have no heart, but if you aren’t a middle-aged conservative, you have no head.” The strategy of the Left (by which I mean Democrats/Liberals) is to appeal to peoples’ feelings; they tug at the heart strings rather than appeal to logic.

Donald Trump has effectively confounded the Democratic Party in the United States. Right now Democrats struggle to even articulate what their platform is. All they do is oppose whatever Trump advocates for. Party leaders stoke anger in their base because when you keep people seeing red, it reduces their capacity for rational thought. At this point fostering rage is the only thing they have. That’s how we’ve arrived in our current absurd situation; even if something is a good idea, if Donald Trump happens to support it, it is to be violently opposed. We now find ourselves in an environment where the Left opposes cracking down on violent crime and drug use, releases those with violent criminal histories, and opposes the enforcement of laws that have long been on the books, simply because Trump supports them and they believe there’s no possible way to find common ground with someone they label as so terrible.

The politicians themselves don’t believe the statements they’re making about how dire the situation is. It’s theater. It’s for the cameras. They don’t really believe Trump is going to throw them in jail for opposing him. If they did, they’d flee the country or go into hiding. It’s simply the rhetoric they use to keep their base engaged and fired up. A normal human being understands these people don’t believe the things coming out of their own mouths. For a while they tried the whole “he’s a threat to Democracy” thing, but that approach lost a lot of its effectiveness when the landslide electoral victory which installed Trump in the White House a second time was the direct result of Democracy in action. The Left, decimated and leaderless in the wake of the election, then had to crank up the rhetorical intensity, to the more recent claims of aspiring fascist dictator.

The problem is that when you keep things at a boil for so long, even if you don’t buy in to what you’re saying, there are people listening to you who do. They figure “a Representative/Senator gets to see it up close each and every day, they know even better than I do what a $@&#! that guy is.” The average Joes and Janes who get hyper political tend to spend time surrounded by people of the same opinion. Then, when they search things on YouTube, it follows each video with suggestions on similar videos. They don’t hear any other viewpoints, so they get further entrenched in their own. The boil builds further.

After living in an echo chamber of hate and vitriol for so long, eventually somebody from the more easily influenced among us says to themselves “here’s this threat, this guy who’s a danger to the country, and even to the world, who shouldn’t be president. Everybody I talk to knows it, but nobody’s doing anything about it! You know what? If nobody else is willing to do anything about it, I will!” This type of rhetoric and environment already radicalized two men enough to attempt to assassinate Donald Trump. One guy actually pulled the trigger and even struck then-candidate Trump, and the second attempt was foiled before the shooter had Trump in his sights.

For a while people on both sides started to realize the heat had been turned up too high. They backed off for a little, but a 24-hour news cycle demands something to report, even if nothing’s there. News cycles of this sort are incapable of toning things down; they can only ratchet things up. (Case in point – the word “unprecedented” has been used so often the word’s now lost a lot of its impact.) News channels simply cannot throttle back; they have to up the ante just to maintain ratings. Try going back and watching news coverage from the days of George W. Bush, who at the time was a highly controversial president. You’ll long for those “simpler” times. Is it any wonder people who watch a lot of news coverage for any length of time experience increased levels of anxiety?

Well, imagine you’re someone who’s been radicalized enough to become violent. You’ve seen Trump survive two assassination attempts, and figure he’s a pretty hard target to reach and his security has only increased. So who else can you take a look at?

Details are still emerging, so I don’t want to speculate on specifics, but evidently the shooter at the Utah Valley University campus determined it was acceptable to snuff out the life of someone who espouses a viewpoint contrary to his own. Charlie Kirk voiced such an opinion, was a known Trump supporter, and presented an opportunity. The gunman saw an opportunity and took it.

I’ll concede that while neither side is completely guiltless of exaggerating the rhetoric, it’s far easier to find inflammatory remarks from the Left than it is from the Right. (For every Marjorie Taylor Greene there’s a “Squad.”) I’m not sure why higher numbers of radicalized criminals come from the Left than from the Right. Maybe it’s the Left’s dependence on emotions, or would-be Right-leaning radicals having the viewpoint of “as long as Government stays out of my business, I don’t care.”

We need a reset. We need to be willing to listen to people with different opinions. Republicans: continue pointing out that this level of highly charged rhetoric contributed to the loss of life, and it can’t continue. Democrats: turn down the heat and for goodness’ sake, come up with a platform that appeals to people in the center rather than on the fringe. You’re on the wrong side of just about every 80/20 issue. Both sides: You need to work together to get something done. Start with some bipartisan stuff like stopping Daylight Savings Time or something easy for both sides to agree on. News media: diversify your coverage! With multiple 24-hour news channels there’d better be more than six to eight main stories…there’s more going on in this world than politics; mix in some good news, too, even if it means your ratings take a hit. Don’t worry, you’ll still get sponsors as long as people are watching you.

We’re losing our capacity to accept that not everyone thinks the way we do. Charlie Kirk didn’t spread hate; he challenged the basis for viewpoints. Healthy debate over ideas used to be an important thing in this nation, but we’ve moved from attacking ideas to attacking their supporters. Pray we’d all take a step back from the brink and see those with opposing viewpoints for who we are…fellow humans.

This Year’s Patriot Day Message

Today we mark another somber anniversary. Believe it or not, it’s been almost a quarter century since one of the darkest days in the nation’s history.

For those on the younger side, I’m sure you’ve heard of 9/11 and you know what happened and all that, but it’s hard to really convey everything the nation went through that day and how it changed things for us. Imagine the nation as a whole feeling a blend of confusion, horror, fear, anger, grief, patriotism, and rage, all at the same time. As strange as it sounds, people of just about every political persuasion got along with each other in the weeks that followed, because being Americans united us more than it divided us.

There were three sites physically impacted that day: the field in Pennsylvania where the plane whose passengers rose up against their hijackers ended up crashing, the World Trade Center in New York City, and the Pentagon near DC. Watching the images from the site in Manhattan had the biggest effect on me; I had been up on the observation deck multiple times before, and within the previous year or two I’d had lunch with my Mom, Dad, and sister in a park made famous by a picture of an exhausted firefighter. Even though the Manhattan site was the most personal to me, there were lives lost in all three areas, either airline passengers or unassuming souls on the ground. Even though it’s 24 years later, that memory is still powerful to me, and I’m sure many people have similar powerful memories of that day.

This probably isn’t the last time we’ll get a bloody nose (or worse) as a nation. What I can tell you for sure, though, is that it’s not going to be the last time you see a wicked scheme succeed.

The Bible addresses incidents where wrongdoers seem like they’re getting ahead in life. David saw it and wrote about it. In Psalm 37:7-9 we read some of the most difficult instructions in the entire Bible: when you see wickedness seem to prevail, be patient.

“7 Be still before the Lord and wait patiently for him; do not fret when people succeed in their ways, when they carry out their wicked schemes.

8 Refrain from anger and turn from wrath; do not fret—it leads only to evil.

9 For those who are evil will be destroyed, but those who hope in the Lord will inherit the land.”

This Patriot Day, take the time to pause and remember the innocents who lost their lives, but remember as a Christian that two wrongs don’t make a right. When you witness evil succeeding, be patient and wait on the Lord; He sees it and will deal with it in His time.

The Election’s Finally Over!

Just a quick note today. Congratulations to President-Elect Trump and all those who supported him.

As we all know, elections are contentious issues in our country. Just about half of the country is guaranteed to be disappointed. Many times the winning candidate will speak of unity, or about “being a president for all Americans.” I think that’s noble, but things often go off the rails and that notion falls by the wayside quickly.

So today, I ask that if you’re a Trump supporter interacting with those who supported Vice President Harris, please don’t gloat or spike the football. It could be family, friends, coworkers, or the person you see at the grocery store. Maybe it’s at the Thanksgiving table in a few weeks. If we truly want to move forward as a country under the banner of unity, it’s not helpful to throw a victory in anyone’s face. Let’s assume we’re all Americans and want to move closer together, not further apart.

Maybe this post is reaching you a day or two late and you’ve already been an instigator in some of those “victory!” conversations. I ask that you build people up, not tear them down. Criticize ideas, not people. If an apology is in order, please follow through with one.

And if nothing else, at least the political ads are over now!

Race to the White House: Under Two Weeks To Go

Well here we are, less than two weeks out from the election.

We’ve reached the point in election season where polls have begun tightening. This is normal, and is kind of a predictable thing. This explanation for why this happens is going to sound a little conspiracy-theory-ish, but you can go back and look at data from past elections and find it holds true in many cases.

To be honest, polling data isn’t super useful except for giving news commentators something to talk about. If that’s true, why start showing polling information months ahead of the election? The answer is a little counterintuitive. Poll results are released very early for the purpose of beginning to shape public opinion, not to measure it. Pollsters are very rarely politically agnostic. They want to steer the public toward a certain outcome, either by disheartening people supporting one candidate or by making them want to throw in with the winning team. This is why you’ll hear campaigns sometimes refer to their internal polling data. They wouldn’t need internal polling if the publicly available polling was reliable.

All right, so pollsters want to shape public opinion, but why do polls start tightening as the race nears an end? Well, it’s because pollsters aren’t stupid. After this election, there will be another election, and then another one after that. As political races near their conclusion, pollsters begin conducting polls more accurately, enabling their future selves to showcase accurate examples of their past work, including working with solid methodologies and appropriate sample sizes, to potential clients. As those methodologies change, they move away from tactics used for shaping opinion, and more toward those used to capture accurate snapshots of it. One way that’s done is by moving toward a more equal balance of both sides of an issue in the polling data (instead of an early poll of 1043 people comprising 573 Democrats and 470 Republicans, they’ll move closer to a 50/50 split, for example).

Just a note on why Donald Trump’s actual level of support is normally more than what shows up in polls. Political pundits, the news media, and a variety of others have done such a good job demonizing Trump, making people think he’s “unhinged” or a “threat to Democracy,” that people are sometimes reluctant to express support for him to anyone outside their trusted friends/family. They just don’t feel safe being honest with pollsters looking to get an idea of the level of support each candidate has. They’re more likely than Kamala Harris supporters to either skip answering a survey altogether or answer “I’m undecided” instead of verbalizing their “controversial” support for Trump. I think this is one of the biggest reasons Trump’s level of support gets underestimated. I think Trump is more likely to have this “hidden support” than Harris is. If that’s true, Harris’ level of support in the polls is about as good as it’s going to get, but Trump could still have some additional room to run.

As far as the national poll, the Democratic candidate usually wins that one. It’s not how you win the White House, though. Our elections are not decided by popular vote; they’re decided by the Electoral College method. National polling is essentially meaningless. You win the presidency by getting to 270 electoral votes, not by winning the popular vote. That’s why accurate polling from battleground states is so highly sought after.

If you live in a battleground state, you’re probably sick of seeing political ads on TV, hearing them on the radio, or getting them in your mailbox. I can’t help with the TV and radio versions, but I can tell you how to cut back on the amount of junk mail, phone calls, and door knocks from campaign volunteers you receive. Campaigns can be very smart with the money available to them. They don’t often spend money on canvassing or flyers when they don’t need to. Kamala Harris doesn’t need to campaign in Massachusetts or Maryland; she’s going to win those states. It would be a waste of money then, to send political flyers to supporters in those states. That money would be put to better use in a state or area where the outcome is less certain.

You may already know that your voting record is publicly available. Not your record of who you’ve voted for, mind you…your record of past elections you’ve shown up to vote in. Cost-minded campaign officials target the people with a demonstrated history of voting. As early- and mail-in voting begins, election officials remove the names of people who have voted from the pool of remaining eligible voters. This data is available to all campaigns. If they know you still haven’t voted, they see you as someone they still want to send advertisements to. If you want to help a campaign financially without actually donating to them, vote early so the campaign can spend its resources on someone who may still be considering voting. If you want to stop getting phone calls and junk mail, vote early. Doing so will remove you from the list of registered voters still eligible to vote, rather than you.

One final tip. Let’s say you’re not happy with either candidate but will still show up to vote for your choice of Senator and Congressional Representative. Many people doing this will skip over the presidential portion of the ballot. That’s something you don’t want to do. Doing it this way enables somebody without scruples, whoever that might be, to hijack your legitimate ballot and vote for their preferred candidate, having it count as much as every other ballot during a recount. Still don’t want to vote for either of the major party candidates? Choose somebody to write in. I hear Mickey Mouse consistently appears as one of the top write-in candidates. Writing in someone’s name, even if it’s not a real person, prevents the ballot from being misused in that capacity.

Keep the elections in your prayers. No matter where we are two weeks from now, almost half of the country is going to be unhappy with the outcome. Pray that the process would be secure, that people will trust the system, and that the winner would be a president for all Americans. We know nobody in power gets there without God’s allowing them to, but outcomes can still be tough to accept when your will doesn’t line up with God’s.

The News Cycles Get Faster and Faster These Days!

Well good golly. Things are happening so fast these days, this post will probably be outdated before it goes live!

President Biden has removed himself from consideration for the 2024 election. The poor guy got pressured from everybody to drop out, and he finally gave in before they made it really ugly for him. I can’t say I blame him, though I hope I will have retired at a much earlier age than him! What does this all mean for the 2024 Democratic ticket? At this point, it’s tough to say with certainty. Right now there’s a very large effort underway to portray Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee.

Mind you, that doesn’t mean she’s the best candidate. President Biden endorsed her the day he dropped out of the race, and people rallied behind her very quickly. This is probably a mistake on the Democrats’ part. I acknowledge the short timeline between now and the election drives a desire to quickly coalesce behind someone, but I think Democrats would be better served by taking more time to figure out who that “someone” should be.

Democratic voters have been exceedingly anxious since the Biden/Trump debate, when their candidate’s “A Game” was discovered to be at best a C minus. In hindsight, folks are realizing a lot of people have been covering up President Biden’s decline for a long time now. By comparison, Harris looks young and vibrant, and Democratic voters were quick to rally to her side because they’re more or less excited to have anybody besides the President. Right now polls suggest things are very tight between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, but I expect there to be some changes to the polling as the Veep gets out in front of more cameras or people and starts giving unscripted interviews.

Kamala Harris isn’t known for her gravitas or political acumen. (If you want a few giggles, search YouTube for “Kamala Harris – What can be unburdened by what has been (compilation).”) If she’s named the Democratic nominee, it’s definitely not for her merit as a political heavyweight, and if it’s not for her merit, we’re likely to be consumed by a fresh round of identity politics between now and the election. If she ends up the nominee, she’s going to need someone on the ticket with her who can counterbalance some of her weaknesses. Whoever it is, look for them to be a strong public speaker with a sharp wit, probably from a swing state.

But I’m not yet convinced Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee this cycle. Although many high-level Democrats have endorsed her as their nominee, she still doesn’t have the endorsement of Barak Obama or Nancy Pelosi. If those two give her their blessing, it’s a done deal. Until then, nothing’s for certain. When Biden dropped out of the race it freed the delegates he won in primary elections to vote for whoever they’d like; even though enough of them have pledged their support to Harris to secure the nomination, that pledged support isn’t binding. We may not actually know who the nominee is until the last night of the Democratic National Convention next month. From a strategy perspective, the best thing to do would be to let the excitement over Harris die down a little, get some more accurate polling information from Independents as people get a better handle on who Kamala Harris is and whether they want her as President, and then based on that and whoever else is available, pick your best candidate to be the nominee in a theatrical and dramatic way at the convention. I expect there are two main factions in the Democratic Party right now: the portion very vocal about supporting Harris, and the very quiet portion who’s fully aware of her flaws and weaknesses and is looking for an alternative and a way to install him or her as the nominee without severely disrespecting Ms. Harris in front of the whole world. Something that could increase Harris’s chances would be if Joe leaves the Oval Office before the convention. It would destroy Democratic unity to have Harris be president for just a couple weeks before announcing someone else will run to succeed her.

The irony of all this, of course, is that for all the talk of Trump being a threat to democracy and the Constitution, the fact of the matter is that whoever the Democratic candidate for President ends up being will have become the nominee without winning any primary elections. No everyday citizens will have voted for him or her. Kinda shady to bypass the will of the people, don’t you think? I understand these are unusual circumstances, but the fact remains the next Democratic nominee could be chosen by a small group of powerful people in a dark, smoky room without the electorate’s approval. Realistically there’s not enough time to organize a new set of primary elections so this is largely unavoidable, but this will forever be an interesting little asterisk in the history of American Democracy.

Another question is “What now happens to the ballots which have Joe Biden’s name on them already?” With President Biden forcefully insisting for weeks he’d be staying in the race, and the Republican National Convention having concluded by nominating Donald Trump as its candidate, it’s easy to understand if election officials said “go ahead and print the 2024 ballots using the names Joe Biden and Donald Trump.” Well right now only one of those candidates remains in the race. A very simple question suddenly becomes very complicated: “What happens when people vote for Joe Biden on those ballots?”

It depends on the election laws of the state the citizen is voting in, and we’ve got more than 50 different electoral jurisdictions (states, territories, districts, etc.), each with their own laws. Common sense dictates they’d be counted for whoever the Democratic nominee ends up being, but it may not play out that way. The best thing to do would be to move heaven and earth to get new ballots printed with the right names, otherwise Trump may very well end up winning some traditionally blue states on a technicality. If that happens, you can expect another storming of the Capitol Building in DC, this time by Democratic protesters.

In the meantime, look for some countries to take advantage of the U.S. disarray. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea all have something to gain when the U.S. is weak or having a bad day, so be on the lookout for one or more of them to make some kind of move before Inauguration Day.

As always, keep our nation in prayer; we never seem to be short on unrest. No matter who wins in November, half the country’s not going to be happy about it. President Biden is still in charge, so keep him in your prayers as well. And finally, just because your neighbor doesn’t agree with you politically, help ‘em out if they need a hand. After all, Americans should come together when things are tough.