Month: June 2022

Posted on

A Sneak Peek at the 2024 Election

I know we’ve still got a midterm election to get through this year, but let’s just jump ahead a little bit to the 2024 presidential election.

If you’re a Democratic strategist, you’ve got a dilemma on your hands. From a polling perspective, President Biden is a disaster. Elections aren’t won by Democratic voters or Republican voters; they’re won by independent voters, and those voters have abandoned Biden in droves.

Let’s take a look at the landscape. Less than 25% of those polled earlier this week believe the country is headed in the right direction. The average cost of a gallon of gasoline has nearly doubled since Biden took office, the supply chain problems still aren’t fixed, we’re heading into a recession, the war in Ukraine is having all kinds of ripple effects, the southern border is a hot mess, the Afghanistan withdrawal was completely botched, the prioritization of social issues over actual education in schools means kids are able to do less and less academically, we don’t know if inflation has peaked yet, and a variety of other minor crises are inflicting damage on the president’s credibility. Many in his party think he’s become too radical, and other members of his party think he’s not radical enough. He’s the oldest person to ever hold the office; while there are some people that could do the job at his age, Americans are increasingly realizing that he’s simply not one of those people. Barring a string of miracles in his favor, there are very few scenarios where Joe Biden can win re-election. The last time a Democratic president with inflation numbers like this who were in office during a time with a general sense of national gloom like today’s ran for re-election, he got absolutely stomped by a Republican candidate who offered an optimistic vision for the country.

So, Democratic strategist, what do you do?

Let’s be honest. You can’t begin serious talk of ditching him for another democratic presidential candidate until after the midterms. There are some feelers out there now, and that’s sort of a way of introducing the idea to the public and seeing how the idea is received. Democrats are likely to take a beating in the midterms, and at this point that’s almost a foregone conclusion. Many people are sick and tired of President Biden, but those election results will provide part of the justification for beginning the process of dumping him.

Personally, I think it’s safe to say at this point, just over four months before the election, that the Democrats will lose the House, but I’m not sure by how much. Once that happens open rebellion in the Democratic Party will follow, but I’ll add that the magnitude of the loss will help determine how civil the mutiny is. If the president can be convinced to avoid running again, I honestly think that would be the best thing for the Democrats. If he decides to stick it out, there will be a messy civil war among the Dems, and just trying to fend off a challenge could take so much out of the President that it seriously affects his health. If voters get enough traction to conduct a primary for the Democratic candidate for President, President Biden will lose it and he won’t end up receiving the nomination in ’24. If not, and Biden’s the candidate, he’ll lose in the general election against pretty much anyone.

What about over on the Republican side? I think that’s also lined with pitfalls. The big question mark, of course, is Donald Trump. I’m inclined to think that he’ll announce his intentions soon after the midterm elections. He’s developed a personal following that’s unheard of for Republican politicians, but his support seems to vacillate widely. Some people were so turned off by his style that they voted for Biden in ’20 just so they wouldn’t have to see news coverage of him anymore, but now that they’re living with the fallout of that decision, they may be open to voting for Trump and his policies next time (cheap gas, secure borders, a stable economy, making the lives of Americans better before we make the lives of people in other countries better, etc.). On the other hand, nobody truly knows for sure what kind of “revenge tour” he’d go on if he were sworn in once again. It’s tough to imagine he’d completely ignore the actions of people he perceives as having wronged him.

There are a couple of very capable contenders on the bench. Mike Pence has plenty of experience and has many of the same policy stances as former President Trump, but without the drama. I believe he could beat Biden, but he’s very vanilla and lacks any sort of charisma, which, sad to say, would be enough to allow someone that’s all flash and no substance to beat him in ’28.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is someone to keep an eye on. Lots of Republican politicians (George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, to name a few) felt that if they played nice, the media would respect them and eventually treat them well. That belief is nowhere near reality. Donald Trump figured out “the media’s never going to love me, so why bother playing the game their way?” He did it his way, but he did it so brashly and coarsely that it made some voters ignore the success of his policies and fixate only on the persona. Governor DeSantis is not afraid to push back against the media and some of the loud voices on the left, but he’s able to do it effectively and in a way that’s more palatable to voters. Since he embodies many of the same policy positions that Trump does, this makes him particularly dangerous to Democrats.

The Republican side has a number of additional contenders beyond those early frontrunners (Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott), though I’d offer that governors tend to make better presidents than senators because they already have experience leading large multi-agency government organizations that have competing interests. Unfortunately these days, you don’t need to have good experience, you just have to be funny or cool on late-night talk shows and you’ll probably win the election.

This raises an obvious question on the Democratic side: if not Biden, who?

The bench is not nearly as deep. The Democratic Party is in sore need of some new blood. Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi come to mind, but their age and baggage are also concerns.

Kamala Harris seems to be a VP of more style than substance. President Biden has put her in charge of such things as addressing the border surge, passing the voting rights act, and most recently, the “Ministry of Gender Truth.” Her efforts may be spun as exceptional, but results seem to be lacking.

Pete Buttigieg is an up-and-comer, but he’s still trying to shake off the bad optics of taking nearly two months of paternity leave while the nation floundered with its supply chain crisis…not a good look for the Secretary of Transportation.

Strangely enough, there are some people from outside the political world that could make a strong showing. With the right campaign manager, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson would have a great shot in the general if he could somehow beat everyone else in the primary. Billionaire Mark Cuban could also make a splash, but Washington political animals tend to shrug off the idea of helping a non-politician lead their party. Retired Admiral William McRaven could be a dark horse.

All this to say…the midterm elections are probably going to be the beginning of the end of President Biden. Whatever your political persuasion…do YOU want to be working one of the most demanding jobs in the world when you’re blowing out a birthday cake that has 80 candles on top? I don’t think I’m alone in saying that it would be beneficial for Democrats if the president didn’t run in 2024. Retirement can be a wonderful thing, but it’s way more enjoyable if you get there on your own terms rather than being forced into it.

Lord, we know that nobody ascends to power without your permission. We’ve got a very divided nation right now, and our land is sorely in need of healing. For both the midterms and the next national election after that, please make it clear to us who will either honor You directly or who will establish conditions that allow many others to honor you. I ask in Your name, Amen.

Posted on

I Fail To See…Anything at All…

My wife and I have been married for 16 years now, and it’s been good. Our personalities complement each other, we have lots of laughs, and of course, we’re still learning together, especially when it comes to parenting.

One thing that’s kind of funny about our relationship, though, is a scenario that my wife continually finds herself in, but often doesn’t anticipate. She, like many people, sometimes stands up too fast, stretches, and then gets lightheaded.

There have been numerous times in our marriage when I see it coming, but she doesn’t. In the past I’ve been brushing my teeth, puttering around in the kitchen, coming down the stairs, or doing something else, and I’ll hear her stand up and stretch. At that point I know I’ve got a few beats to get there in time to catch her when her vision tunnels or goes dark. Sometimes the stretch lasts long enough that the muscles steal all the blood from her head and she starts to slump mid-stretch.

She can handle it herself, of course. It’s not like she’s helpless and passes out if it happens when I’m not around. The point is that I see it coming and she doesn’t. Sometimes I know her better than she knows herself.

God’s like that too. He knows you better than you do. I think each of us probably believes we know what’s best for us, and sometimes we maybe even think we know better than God.

“God, why haven’t I won the lottery yet?” “Because if you did, it would destroy your life.”

Or maybe “God, I think you blew it. I should have gotten that job.” “I can see why you think that, but if you did, you’d be focusing your energy somewhere other than where I want you to focus it right now.”

You may have prayed “God, I’m still waiting for that spouse/child to come into my life.” “Yes I know, but I have you doing something more important at the moment.”

There are endless reasons why God doesn’t follow your timetable or path. I don’t know why He does some things in certain ways, but I know He knows us better than we know ourselves. As we go through our lives endlessly wondering why He chose to make us take detours or experience setbacks, it can be painful, but remember that in light of His intimate knowledge of us, there’s probably at least one purpose behind it, even if we don’t know what it is.

Lord, it’s not too bad to trust You with certain areas of my life, but it can be really hard to trust You with EVERY area of my life. I know You know me best; please help me to accept that Your ways are higher than my ways, that it’s intentional when you slow me down as I’m ready to run ahead, and that whatever happens today is part of the preparation for tomorrow. Thank you for blessing me the ways You have. In Your name, Amen.

Posted on

Of Course THAT’S When She Walked Through the Door!

Years ago I found myself bringing my toddler son out in our backyard to give him a change of scenery. He was a curious little guy, and sometimes even just bringing him to a different room or out in the backyard kept him busy for a little while.

Our yard at the time was very small, but it had plenty of stuff for my little guy to explore. It was fenced in, had an HVAC condenser unit, a shed, and a little sandbox. There was always something to clean up back there, so I busied myself doing that while my son set about exploring his environment.

I think I noticed a strange look on his face right around the same time my wife came outside to join us. Having “Mom Radar,” she spotted his expression right away and hurried over to him and opened up his mouth. To her disgust, my son had picked up a little Roly-Poly (a pillbug) and put it in his mouth. She fished it out while half laughing and half scolding her husband. If only she were married to someone responsible, he could be trusted to care for the well being of this little boy out in the backyard!

Man, I blew it. Daddy fail. There are other fails, but this is probably one of the more mild ones. I still have the teenage years ahead of me, so I’m probably going to blow it on multiple occasions when the stakes are higher.

This Sunday is Father’s Day. Everyone out there has a father. Maybe you have a fabulous relationship with your dad. You may have had a terrible father. You may not have ever met your dad. Whatever the case may be, I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that if he hasn’t already, your dad is probably going to let you down at least once (I’m certainly no exception). Even if he loves you, he’s human, and humans make lots of mistakes. (It’s not a dig at you, Dad!)

I can also guarantee you, though, that not only does your Heavenly Father love you, but He does NOT make mistakes. He loves you enough to rebuke you, to discipline you, and to steer you in the direction He wants you to go in, even if it’s not the direction you’re trying to go. Whereas I try to let my kids be kids and encourage them in some of their interests without knowing what they’ll someday become, the Lord controls different aspects of your life to get you to arrive exactly where He wants you to be, right when He wants you to be there, with the right experience already under your belt.

Many are the plans in the mind of a man, but it is the purpose of the Lord that will stand. –Proverbs 19:21

“And I will be a father to you, and you shall be sons and daughters to Me,” Says the Lord Almighty. -2 Corinthians 6:18

Happy Father’s Day to the dads out there!

Posted on

The Physics of Sin

It’s been a long time since I’ve done it, but years ago I got scuba certified. As you might expect, there’s a lot more to it than just grabbing an air tank and jumping into the water. I found learning about some of the physics behind it to be very interesting. I know not everybody is a math person, so I’ll try to keep it pretty general.

Scuba diving is all about pressure. Before we get in the water we’re only dealing with the weight of air on us. If you’re standing on the shore at sea level, the weight of all the air above you equates to a little less than 15 pounds per square inch (psi). That’s not much, considering how many miles up that column of air extends. This level, 14.69 psi, is known as one atmosphere.

The water is a completely different story. Since water weighs so much more than air, a column of only about 34 feet of water exerts the same amount of pressure as one atmosphere. Standing at the ocean’s edge you have one atmosphere pressing down on you. Scuba diving 34 feet deep, you have two atmospheres pressing down on you (one air and one water).

Moving from sea level to 34 feet under the surface causes the pressure that’s exerted on your body to increase by 100%, to nearly 30 psi. It’s definitely noticeable. If you move another 34 feet deeper, you have a total of three atmospheres (almost 45 psi) pressing on your body. The same amount of air pressure in your tank offers differing amounts of breathable air at various depths because there needs to be enough “oomph” in your air tank(s) to overcome the water pressure to make it through the regulator, hoses, and into your lungs. That excess “oomph” is what determines how much air is available for you to breathe. The deeper you go, the less time you can stay there.

Here’s the kicker: as you’re descending deeper, you notice the biggest pressure difference early on, and even though you’re still descending, the rate of increase gets less noticeable the deeper you go. Ever dive deep into a pool or a lake? You probably had to plug your nose and equalize the pressure in your head/ears before you went 10-12 feet deep because it felt like there was a huge increase in pressure. Mathematically, moving from one to two atmospheres is a 100% increase. Moving from two to three atmospheres is an increase of only 50%. Moving from three to four atmospheres is an increase of only 33%. The further you go, going even further feels like less of a big deal.

Sin is like that too. When you first encounter something you know is wrong, it’s easy to identify as being wrong. Once you start accepting it, rationalizing it away, or getting comfortable with it, it becomes more difficult to think of as being “wrong.” You start to accept additional things you formerly would’ve rejected outright. Once you make the jump from “one atmosphere” to two, it becomes easier to move to the third, and from there to the fourth.

What’s the bottom line? If you know it’s wrong, don’t do it. Don’t compromise. The more you compromise on living a God-honoring life, the more you’ll be willing to make subsequent concessions. Stay in that area near the surface, where you’re still sensitive to small changes in pressure and where going only 10 feet down becomes painful.

Our world is changing. Things that were once considered unspeakable are now commonplace and even endorsed. God’s view of sin has not changed, so neither should ours. We’re all sinners, and we all need the salvation Christ offers. Everyone needs to hear about it (God loves each and every person He’s created, so we shouldn’t play favorites), and you may be the only way someone encounters the truth. The truth will be more evident in your life if you’re living the way God wants.

Lord Jesus, thank you for creating this wonderful world and even giving us examples from science! Help us all be sensitive about the things in our lives that we should not allow to be there. Also help us to avoid a “holier than thou” attitude and be willing to genuinely reach the “tax collectors and sinners” of the Bible. Praise You for what You’ve done for us! In Your name, Amen.

Posted on

What can Christians Learn From Pee Wee Basketball?

Ever see a youth basketball game? If you’re a competitive parent (or even just a parent that enjoys watching a team play as a well-oiled machine), it can be excruciating to watch.

Two of my kids played in a local league this spring. It was their first year playing, and they only practiced once a week. In a case like this it’s important to temper expectations, because they’re not gonna become professional-caliber players over the course of a single season, especially if they’re only practicing once a week.

The games early in the season were somewhere between comical and horrendous. For kids that haven’t played before, or who don’t have much experience, the first few games are for becoming familiar with the rules and the mechanics of the game. “This is how you start a game,” “put your hands up when defending,” “this is what you do during foul shots,” “this is how you set up your defense.” They all get better over time, of course, but early in the season, things are just ugly.

One girl on the team got so excited when she got the ball, she just started running down the court with it rugby style, forgetting to dribble. I saw one boy so focused on getting to his defensive zone that he didn’t pay any attention to the fact that he was clearing the way to the basket for someone on the opposite team, who was dribbling down the court right behind him. One kid can dribble like a fiend with his right hand; he dribbles circles around the opposition, but it’s because he can’t dribble back the other direction. Then there’s the kid that’s super fast. He gets the ball and sprints down the court on a fast break, but he doesn’t look up. By the time he realizes he should slow down to take a shot, it’s already too late and the ball gets away from him, flying out of bounds and thus into the hands of the other team.

It’s been interesting to observe how the officiating has changed over the course of the season. Early on when things were just dog-ugly, the referees were pretty lenient. There were lots of “teachable moments” that occurred, but you’d have to do something pretty egregious to get the whistle blown. Double dribbles, travels, over-the-back fouls…the refs let them get away with stuff in the beginning because the kids were still learning a lot about how this whole thing worked. As the weeks went on, the officiating got a little tighter because the kids got enough experience to be able to know better. “Oh that’s right, I can’t do that. I’ll have to play cleaner next time.” Over the course of a season, there’s a vast improvement from the first week to the final week. Even a small amount of consistent practice and playing according to instruction helps the players become much more proficient.

Superimpose this metaphor on the Christian life. Early in our walk with God, there are probably times He feels just like a coach of a youth basketball team as one of his players dribbles the ball in the wrong direction and takes a shot at the wrong basket. Even if that player is terrible at what they’re doing, they can improve by leaps and bounds if they’re willing to be shaped and molded and to follow the coach’s instructions. Same thing with Christians. In the long run, a kid with mediocre talent and a willingness to be shaped will be more valuable than a kid with a lot of talent and a stubborn resistance to the coach’s instructions or strategy. With dedication and time the kid will mature and have a greater awareness of what’s happening on the court, and as they develop more skills they’ll have more opportunities to make a positive impact for their team. Same deal for those that follow Jesus.

Wherever you are in this metaphor’s spectrum, don’t rob yourself of the opportunity to be shaped and get better. Our coach is willing to work with you one on one to get you thinking more like Him, to work on your weak spots, and to get you doing drills that will prepare you for the next challenge. Spend time with Him, preferably way more than once a week, and you’ll probably notice yourself developing more awareness of how events are unfolding around you and a greater capacity to help your team out. You’ve got some talent in raw form; let’s see what happens when Coach guides you to where He wants you to be.