I know we’ve still got a midterm election to get through this year, but let’s just jump ahead a little bit to the 2024 presidential election.
If you’re a Democratic strategist, you’ve got a dilemma on your hands. From a polling perspective, President Biden is a disaster. Elections aren’t won by Democratic voters or Republican voters; they’re won by independent voters, and those voters have abandoned Biden in droves.
Let’s take a look at the landscape. Less than 25% of those polled earlier this week believe the country is headed in the right direction. The average cost of a gallon of gasoline has nearly doubled since Biden took office, the supply chain problems still aren’t fixed, we’re heading into a recession, the war in Ukraine is having all kinds of ripple effects, the southern border is a hot mess, the Afghanistan withdrawal was completely botched, the prioritization of social issues over actual education in schools means kids are able to do less and less academically, we don’t know if inflation has peaked yet, and a variety of other minor crises are inflicting damage on the president’s credibility. Many in his party think he’s become too radical, and other members of his party think he’s not radical enough. He’s the oldest person to ever hold the office; while there are some people that could do the job at his age, Americans are increasingly realizing that he’s simply not one of those people. Barring a string of miracles in his favor, there are very few scenarios where Joe Biden can win re-election. The last time a Democratic president with inflation numbers like this who were in office during a time with a general sense of national gloom like today’s ran for re-election, he got absolutely stomped by a Republican candidate who offered an optimistic vision for the country.
So, Democratic strategist, what do you do?
Let’s be honest. You can’t begin serious talk of ditching him for another democratic presidential candidate until after the midterms. There are some feelers out there now, and that’s sort of a way of introducing the idea to the public and seeing how the idea is received. Democrats are likely to take a beating in the midterms, and at this point that’s almost a foregone conclusion. Many people are sick and tired of President Biden, but those election results will provide part of the justification for beginning the process of dumping him.
Personally, I think it’s safe to say at this point, just over four months before the election, that the Democrats will lose the House, but I’m not sure by how much. Once that happens open rebellion in the Democratic Party will follow, but I’ll add that the magnitude of the loss will help determine how civil the mutiny is. If the president can be convinced to avoid running again, I honestly think that would be the best thing for the Democrats. If he decides to stick it out, there will be a messy civil war among the Dems, and just trying to fend off a challenge could take so much out of the President that it seriously affects his health. If voters get enough traction to conduct a primary for the Democratic candidate for President, President Biden will lose it and he won’t end up receiving the nomination in ’24. If not, and Biden’s the candidate, he’ll lose in the general election against pretty much anyone.
What about over on the Republican side? I think that’s also lined with pitfalls. The big question mark, of course, is Donald Trump. I’m inclined to think that he’ll announce his intentions soon after the midterm elections. He’s developed a personal following that’s unheard of for Republican politicians, but his support seems to vacillate widely. Some people were so turned off by his style that they voted for Biden in ’20 just so they wouldn’t have to see news coverage of him anymore, but now that they’re living with the fallout of that decision, they may be open to voting for Trump and his policies next time (cheap gas, secure borders, a stable economy, making the lives of Americans better before we make the lives of people in other countries better, etc.). On the other hand, nobody truly knows for sure what kind of “revenge tour” he’d go on if he were sworn in once again. It’s tough to imagine he’d completely ignore the actions of people he perceives as having wronged him.
There are a couple of very capable contenders on the bench. Mike Pence has plenty of experience and has many of the same policy stances as former President Trump, but without the drama. I believe he could beat Biden, but he’s very vanilla and lacks any sort of charisma, which, sad to say, would be enough to allow someone that’s all flash and no substance to beat him in ’28.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is someone to keep an eye on. Lots of Republican politicians (George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, to name a few) felt that if they played nice, the media would respect them and eventually treat them well. That belief is nowhere near reality. Donald Trump figured out “the media’s never going to love me, so why bother playing the game their way?” He did it his way, but he did it so brashly and coarsely that it made some voters ignore the success of his policies and fixate only on the persona. Governor DeSantis is not afraid to push back against the media and some of the loud voices on the left, but he’s able to do it effectively and in a way that’s more palatable to voters. Since he embodies many of the same policy positions that Trump does, this makes him particularly dangerous to Democrats.
The Republican side has a number of additional contenders beyond those early frontrunners (Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott), though I’d offer that governors tend to make better presidents than senators because they already have experience leading large multi-agency government organizations that have competing interests. Unfortunately these days, you don’t need to have good experience, you just have to be funny or cool on late-night talk shows and you’ll probably win the election.
This raises an obvious question on the Democratic side: if not Biden, who?
The bench is not nearly as deep. The Democratic Party is in sore need of some new blood. Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi come to mind, but their age and baggage are also concerns.
Kamala Harris seems to be a VP of more style than substance. President Biden has put her in charge of such things as addressing the border surge, passing the voting rights act, and most recently, the “Ministry of Gender Truth.” Her efforts may be spun as exceptional, but results seem to be lacking.
Pete Buttigieg is an up-and-comer, but he’s still trying to shake off the bad optics of taking nearly two months of paternity leave while the nation floundered with its supply chain crisis…not a good look for the Secretary of Transportation.
Strangely enough, there are some people from outside the political world that could make a strong showing. With the right campaign manager, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson would have a great shot in the general if he could somehow beat everyone else in the primary. Billionaire Mark Cuban could also make a splash, but Washington political animals tend to shrug off the idea of helping a non-politician lead their party. Retired Admiral William McRaven could be a dark horse.
All this to say…the midterm elections are probably going to be the beginning of the end of President Biden. Whatever your political persuasion…do YOU want to be working one of the most demanding jobs in the world when you’re blowing out a birthday cake that has 80 candles on top? I don’t think I’m alone in saying that it would be beneficial for Democrats if the president didn’t run in 2024. Retirement can be a wonderful thing, but it’s way more enjoyable if you get there on your own terms rather than being forced into it.
Lord, we know that nobody ascends to power without your permission. We’ve got a very divided nation right now, and our land is sorely in need of healing. For both the midterms and the next national election after that, please make it clear to us who will either honor You directly or who will establish conditions that allow many others to honor you. I ask in Your name, Amen.