This is a little bit of a continuation from last week’s post, where we took a look at some presidential candidates for the next election cycle. This time I’m not talking about presidential candidates, but instead will be taking a look at the things the president will need to spend his or her attention and political capital on.
We’re looking at the presidential term of January 2025 to January 2029. As the field of presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle takes shape, consider how these candidates will deal with the following issues. You never know what the most pressing issues will be, but here are some likely scenarios.
On the domestic front:
During that time period our economy will probably still be looking to really hit its stride and get inflation down to pre-pandemic levels. I can’t blame the Fed for raising interest rates, but as we’ve been seeing with a few high-profile bank stories recently, stuff is starting to break. More banks will likely follow. Prior to the bank failures, the Fed recognized that it needed to push rates higher than anticipated to get inflation under control. Now their job gets more complicated because they need to figure out a way to push rates higher without causing large amounts of collateral damage to the economy. That means they move slower, inflation sticks around longer, and it’s generally more painful for the average Jane and Joe.
Politically, we are still a highly polarized nation. There’s supposed to be a healthy amount of political debate, but when you have people getting harmed because of their political views, something has gone horribly wrong. We need someone that can create a degree of unity and foster the idea that it’s okay to agree to disagree and that political opposition is not something that needs to be silenced.
It will get harder and harder to ignore the growing Social Security shortfall. When you’re driving 70 mph on the highway and you see all lanes of traffic stopped up ahead, you can either start slowing down right away and have a gentle adjustment, or you can wait a little longer and then slam on the brakes to avoid catastrophe. The Social Security issue is similar. Something needs to be done. We can either start suggesting uncomfortable things now (shallow benefit cuts, small tax increases, or some combination thereof) or ignore them a bit longer for the sake of winning an election and then be compelled to take drastic action when the situation can no longer be ignored.
The education front has become a hot-button issue recently. Formerly, education meant that students gained proficiency in academic subjects. Many educational institutions seem to have decided that teaching kids is too hard, and instead they’ve taken it upon themselves to prioritize non-education topics above academics, seemingly to minimize the influence of parents. What is the appropriate level of influence parents should have in deciding the curriculum their children are taught? What level of involvement should the school have in steering children toward gender reassignment (and to what degree should the school intentionally keep a student’s parent(s) in the dark about the steps it’s taking to alter the student’s natural body? The education issue was a prominent one in Virginia’s election of Governor Youngkin in 2021.
While domestic politics are what usually help voters decide which candidate gets their vote, the next election will have very important ramifications as we look beyond our country. On the international front:
Hopefully by 2025 Russia will be out of Ukraine. That may be wishful thinking. By that point we may be further entangled. Russia’s downing of an American drone, followed by U.S. politicians calling for retaliation against Russian fighter aircraft illustrate how quickly this whole thing can spiral and suck us into something major. It’s very difficult to foresee how this will end. The Russian psyche is big on not surrendering, so there’s no easy way to convince Russian leaders to simply turn things around and head back home. As things get further bogged down for Russia and Putin runs low on weapons and troops, waving the white flag is not an option for him, and he’ll turn to whatever he has left in his arsenal to try to get his way. Putin will probably try to spin the capture of some small amount of Ukrainian territory into a major victory, but only if he can’t make any substantial headway in achieving his original goals. He’s avoided the use of Weapons of Mass Destruction thus far, but one has to wonder how many conventional weapons he’s got left. Naturally we tend to think things will get better if Putin were somehow thrown out of power. If that were to happen though, who would step into that power void, and would they be even more ruthless than him? They don’t have to be pure as the driven snow, but can/would the powerful people in Moscow agree to put someone more moderate in charge of the government? That’s difficult to believe.
While Russia is prominent today, China looms large during the ’25 to ‘29 timeframe, and will almost definitely be our largest international challenge. China’s backed itself into a corner. Decades of the disastrous one-child policy have led to where China is today: a population with an age demographic that’s about to see sharp increases in average age. China’s rise has been meteoric, but now it’s in a dangerous sprint. Beijing views it as important to assert (and grab) as much power and prestige as possible before it starts losing strength.
It’s very important for China’s ruling party to capture Taiwan and integrate it into the mainland’s system of government. Taiwan currently enjoys a very democratic system of government where it decides its own destiny. When China’s Communists rose up and overthrew the existing government, the deposed government’s leadership fled to an island off the coast of China, to what we know today as Taiwan. Up until the late 1960s/early 70s, China was a reclusive nation and didn’t engage much in the global arena. Richard Nixon helped coax them out of isolation, but one of the conditions was that we recognize only one Chinese Government (it’s called the “One China” policy). We’ve held to that ever since, but China’s moving closer and closer to simply devouring this island, which no Chinese nation, regardless of the style of government, has ever ruled in the past.
As China advances more and more militarily against the backdrop of an aging demographic, I expect it’s developing into a situation where as soon as its leaders feel that victory is possible, there will be no hesitating, but will move immediately and with full commitment to take over the island of Taiwan. The CIA director has stated openly that Chinese leader Xi Jinping has instructed the Chinese military to be ready by 2027 to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan. Let’s not mince words: whoever is president during that time will be in charge of trying to deter this action, and when that fails, will likely give orders that cost American lives. This conflict could balloon into strikes on American soil, and could easily escalate very far very fast. When it comes to using nuclear weapons to deter enemies, the American President doesn’t necessarily have to be willing to employ them, he or she just needs to make the other guy believe they are. If they’re not convincing in this role, deterrence fails. We’re all probably going to hear a lot more about nuclear weapons in the coming years.
There are a whole bunch of other things that are going to happen. A new cold war and the alliances that come with it as the world chooses sides, a new space race and trips to the moon, the issue of climate change and how new policies related to it affect our lives. While we’re focused on China and Russia, opportunists in other parts of the world are taking advantage of the world’s diverted attention; what will they do?
That’s just the predictable stuff. We’ll also have earthquakes, solar storms, major power outages, hurricanes, airline accidents, mass casualty events, and on and on and on. There is no politician that will be prepared for it or get it all right. As the field of candidates expands and then begins narrowing, focus not on superficial things, but on how those still in the race will handle the issues laid out in this post. It will probably have a profound effect on different aspects of your life.