Well the midterms are four months behind us, and the players in the next presidential election are starting to emerge. It’s time for a little political update.
Let’s rip off the band aid. It’s possible (though I would say there’s a good chance it won’t happen) that we have a rematch of Biden vs. Trump.
On the Republican side, former President Trump looms large in the field of 2024 candidates. He’s held the office before, his vision for America contrasts sharply with the current administration, and he connects with an amazing number of people that don’t normally vote in elections. On the other hand, he brings along a lot of baggage. It probably would have been better for him to win two terms in a row than to serve one term, sit out one term, then return for a second one. One major thing he has going for him is that an awful lot of people think the country’s headed in the wrong direction, and he’s not afraid to say things and address issues that career politicians shy away from.
Right now the only other major Republican candidate that’s declared candidacy is Nikki Haley. She’s served as Governor of South Carolina and as the American ambassador to the UN under Donald Trump. She’s certainly qualified for the job, and is maybe more of a centrist than Mr. Trump, but so far she hasn’t been able to generate a significant amount of enthusiasm.
Former VP Mike Pence has yet to declare his candidacy. Due to differences in opinion since leaving office, it’s not likely that he and Trump would reunite to be on the same ticket. By most accounts Mike Pence is a good man, but something very large and unforeseen would need to happen in order for him to be elected president. A ticket consisting of Haley and Pence would likely be good at effectively governing once in office, but I could see how the pair would also be considered so boring as to be unelectable.
The biggest Republican challenge for Trump right now (and Trump knows it) is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. He has not declared his candidacy, but momentum is building for him to do so, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he declared any day now. He’s using his position as governor to notch speaking points for a national run, but he shouldn’t wait much longer to declare. DeSantis has many of the same policy positions as Trump. He tends to be less abrasive, though is still more than willing to push back against those trying to shape the narrative for him. I think the ideal outcome would be to have DeSantis win the nomination, be advised by Trump, and have Haley or Pence run on the ticket with him. (I’ll let you be the judge of how realistic that might be.) This teaming would have a tremendous impact as far as putting the interests of American citizens first.
On the other side of the aisle, the Democrats have a problem. Not only has the widely held notion of Joe Biden being a centrist president been shattered, he’s also proven to not actually be in charge. Centrists that claim blue collar roots don’t try to ban gas stoves. President Biden goes “off script” quite often, much to the chagrin of those working close to him. On multiple occasions, he’s spoken his mind when he was supposed to just stick to the script. Many of those instances have either given insight into what he’s actually thinking or led to damage control sessions that include the phrase “What the President meant to say was…” This leads to the question “if the president’s speaking his mind and you’re walking back his comments, who’s actually making the decisions on his policy positions?”
I’m guessing it won’t be long before we see a minor civil war among the Democrats. While long-serving Dems value loyalty and will close ranks to protect their candidate, there are plenty of others that are looking at reality and seeing it for what it is. Many people know that President Biden will be a weak candidate, but there are two major problems. Number one, how do you prevent a sitting first-term president from running again? Number two, who do you run in his place?
For the first question, believe it or not, honesty just may be the best policy. “You know what? The Presidency is a demanding job. I was hoping that by this age (80+), I’d be able to enjoy retirement and the fruits of my labor. My health is becoming more and more of a concern for my family. I’m going to pass the torch.” This statement assumes the President chooses not to run. If he really and truly wants to be elected for another four years but the Democratic Party wants to clear the way for someone else, it could get ugly. My guess is that it would somehow involve investigations, legal action, or the threat of such things related either to son Hunter or President Biden’s past business dealings. They could all go away if he steps back from the limelight…
As to the second question, one of the obvious choices is VP Kamala Harris. There are major concerns about her track record, though. There has been little progress in anything she’s been placed in charge of (how’s that border crisis coming along?).
It seems like the Administration has also tried to promote the image of Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg as an up-and-comer, but it’s the job of every administration to insulate the president whenever a crisis pops up, and lately that insulation has come at Secretary Buttigieg’s expense. Recent train derailments in Ohio prompted calls for Biden to visit, but after what seemed an excessive amount of time, Buttigieg made the trip and had to face some of the wrath of affected residents in Trump country.
California Governor Gavin Newsom’s name has also been thrown around, though he’s a left-wing extremist and not likely to be competitive on the national stage. If you need someone to buck the tradition of loyalty to the president, this is one guy that would probably be willing to break norms.
Biden looks to perhaps be the best bad option at this point. Aside from them one could consider candidates with an outside shot: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, billionaire Mark Cuban, former presidential candidates Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton. Pair one of them with a gimmick act and you could make something out of nothing. What would happen if the election came down to Chuck Schumer and Tom Hanks on the blue side, with Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley on the red side? Tom Hanks would probably bring in a lot of votes that otherwise wouldn’t be there. Unconventional, yes, but it may be worth looking at if you’re a democratic strategist.
We’re still early enough in the election cycle that anything can happen, but I’m guessing that whoever gets sworn in sometime in January of 2025 will be one of the people mentioned in this post. Let’s check back in a couple of years to see how well this post ages.