It’s been a rough few weeks for President Biden. Let’s take stock of the current political situation.
A stalled domestic agenda. The botched Afghanistan withdrawal. The first time ever that France recalled its ambassador to the US. Rising inflation. The crisis on the southern border (both the normal border crossers and now the Haitians huddling under the bridge in Texas). Trying to manage the optics of mandating vaccines for Americans while releasing unvaccinated illegal immigrants into the US. Even the press is starting to politely turn against him.
Many politicians view election results as the American public delivering mandates. That is, if there’s a large party swing after an election, it’s normally interpreted as the public saying “we want to go in the other direction,” and giving the new majority party license to do so. There’s a problem though. It’s one thing if your political party trounces the other; that outcome suggests the American public is willing to go along with your proposed agenda. However, in this case, this majority is one of the slimmest majorities in recent memory. In fact, the House majority is the narrowest it’s been in about 75 years. In the Senate, party lines are as close as they can possibly be; if a single Democratic senator disagrees, becomes incapacitated, or otherwise doesn’t show for a vote, Dems won’t have enough for even a simple majority, and that simple majority requires using the Vice President to break a tie. Despite this incredibly narrow margin, Democrats have approved and are pursuing highly controversial agenda items that would normally only be undertaken when holding significant majorities. (In the 2010 midterms, for example, after Democrats signed the controversial “Obamacare” into effect, President Obama admitted to the House taking a “shellacking” when they lost about 60 seats to Republicans.)
President Biden’s poll numbers are taking a beating. My sense is that it has to do with his identity crisis. Historically (prior to serving in his role as Vice President), Joe was pretty moderate. Why is it that he’s now gone full radical left? I’d guess it’s because, while he may have his personal political views, the people around him know how to persuade him to do what they want. Joe Biden is a likable guy, but he’s obviously not the one calling the shots. It seems he’s not permitted to engage in unscripted events, and he’s repeatedly made remarks about how he’s “not supposed to” interact with the audience or take questions. This is, like, puppet government stuff (think “Weekend at Bernie’s,” but set in the White House).
If I’m a democratic strategist, I’m looking at this situation and thinking that it’s probably best to wring everything possible out of President Biden (in terms of agenda), but then do my best to make sure someone else, maybe with a more moderate record, is the Democratic nominee running in 2024 (maybe Virginia Senator Mark Warner, if he can raise his profile between now and then).
The problem for Democrats…if Joe Biden leaves office for any reason during this term, Vice President Kamala Harris gets promoted to the big chair, and she’s not yet ready to carry the torch in a Presidential election. She might be ready by the time the election nears, but there’s still much work to be done. It took her a full three months to even visit the border after her boss put her in charge of the border crisis. That’s a fail, even if the border visit didn’t actually accomplish anything. She recently embarked on an official tour through Asia, which should give her some more experience with foreign policy. Time will tell if she’ll be groomed for the role of President.
Let’s say you’re a strategist working for the democratic “kingmakers.” You have President Joe Biden, a man with plummeting poll numbers, but you can pretty much get him to do whatever you want him to do. That benefit isn’t worth anything if he’s voted out of office, however. You’re almost definitely going to have a Republican-controlled House of Representatives after the midterm elections, and possibly a Republican-controlled Senate. What’s your call here? Do you go all in, trying to implement a Democratic wishlist that will get you voted out in the short term, but perhaps return you to office in the long term, or do you focus on trying to retain the White House even if it means tossing Biden (and possibly Harris) overboard in favor of a new ticket? Who do you have on the bench that can be used on the national stage?
Historically speaking, the President’s party loses House seats in midterm elections. (It’s just how it goes; it’s more of an anomaly when this does not happen, like when Republicans gained seats during the 2002 midterm elections…in the wake of 9/11 and the start of the conflict in Afghanistan.) My original prediction would have been that even though it’s predictable, President Biden will get saddled with the blame for losing the House and maybe the Senate, then in the midst of that blame game, the powers that be will demand a Democratic primary for the 2024 election, which he will not win. Judging by the way the press is openly questioning the White House, though, that plan may take too long.
I’m not saying that this part will happen, but it’s something to keep an eye on. There are four Republican House members that are planning to introduce articles of impeachment against President Biden in respect to the Afghanistan debacle and the catastrophe that’s happening on our southern border. They can introduce whatever they want, but it doesn’t mean it’s going to go anywhere. If we start seeing these articles get traction from Democrats, it won’t mean they believe there’s dereliction of duty going on; it will mean that they’ve wrung what they could from Biden and now it’s time to get rid of him in the hopes of having a better shot during the next election. It’s not the way the system should work, but it may be the way it gets used. Again, time will tell, but I don’t think Joe Biden will serve a full four years.
I don’t really like doing political posts here, but I feel it’s important to keep up with what your government is up to. The way I see it, this is more “political analysis” than posting political material.
A lot can happen between now and the next presidential election, and I expect that it will. I don’t believe that President Biden will run for re-election, but at this point I don’t know how that set of circumstances will unfold.