Did you ever see a couple that was fighting about something, but rather than address it head on, they just kind of ignored the issue and left the ball in the other’s court to resolve? Maybe they even made the issue a little worse to increase the pressure on the other partner? That’s sort of what’s going on with Iran.
Americans and Iranians don’t see eye-to-eye on a lot of things. We killed a lot of their leaders and destroyed a lot of their stuff, so it makes perfect sense that they’re not going to be very agreeable to the terms we want them to accept. On the other hand, the Iranian regime is known to be into some pretty bad stuff. They’ve killed Americans. They’ve heavily sponsored terrorist groups. They’ve killed lots of their own people for protesting. I’m going to treat the “who’s right and who’s wrong” aspect of this whole thing as outside the scope of the post, and instead focus on where we are right now.
Going back to the fighting couple, if there’s no clear willingness to move on, outside forces are going to be the thing incentivizing somebody to make the first move. If they’re fighting about an upcoming party, for example, the strategy of not addressing the issue will only work for so long before one of the two gives in and says “okay, we need to make a decision here.” In this case, the one who isn’t in a hurry about the decision probably has a little bit of an advantage because the one trying to solve the problem is probably more anxious about getting it figured out. As a result, the one who’s not in a hurry can have a bit of an upper hand because time is working against the other one.
That’s what’s going on here. Both sides are trying to outlast the other one. They’ll even try to ratchet up the pressure in other areas to make the other side cave first.
Iran’s looking at the U.S. saying “Americans hate high oil prices. All we have to do is incite enough fear and the oil prices will stay high. Maybe we can even draw down their oil reserves. If we can do that, it’s just a matter of time until Trump caves because he knows he’s got mid-terms coming up.” It’s a solid strategy, and is why you’ll see Iran intentionally launch drones or missiles at ships or U.S. installations in the region. A couple of things working against this strategy is that even though U.S. gas prices are elevated much more than they were prior to this military engagement, it is the United States’ ability to export oil that’s keeping its domestic price from going even higher. (It’s not a perfect buffer, but it’s helping.) Additionally, while this would normally play havoc with the stock market, the past decade or so has been so rife with international tension (the word “unprecedented” has been used so much it’s lost its punch) that Wall Street is kind of shrugging this off and expecting things to eventually work out. Last week we set all-time records for the Dow and S&P 500.
The U.S., on the other hand, is looking at Iran and wondering “why haven’t they caved by now?” I don’t know what Trump and his advisors were actually expecting, but they probably thought Iran would have thrown in the towel already. Hats off to the Iranians…they’re tough negotiators. Here’s the tricky part. Both sides want to make it look like they’re willing to consider a deal, but the Americans unquestionably have the upper hand. Just like in poker, however, it’s possible to have a winning hand and still lose if your opponent can outplay you. At this point the actual “cards” held are not what’s driving progress, gamesmanship is. Iran knows it can only last a little while longer before having to agree to a deal on America’s terms. What its leaders are doing is kind of a pattern of appearing willing to deal, but then finding some excuse to lash out and stall. They’re hoping that the President and his advisors get so tired of this uncertainty that they’ll agree to something less than their full list of terms for the sake of saying we got SOME kind of deal to campaign on.
President Trump appears willing to wait them out. Think of the Iranians like an angry child; while they throw tantrums, Trump just needs to be gently persistent, knowing he’s getting closer and closer to the outcome he wants. Adding to the complexity is the fact that the smashed Iranian Government still isn’t fully functioning. The new Ayatollah, if he’s alive and has the use of his faculties, has to prove to the different Iranian groups struggling for power that’s he’s alive and in charge. For anybody over there who’s pushing for peace, there’s probably someone else who’s a hardliner trying to sabotage that peace, and will try to keep drone and missile strikes going. Like the parent of that flipped-out child, we have to be willing to absorb a few hits from them if we think they’re close to giving in. (It would be a much different story if we thought they had plenty of fight in them.)
In the meantime, what’s NOT helpful is all the pundits on TV trying to tell the President how to do his job. My guess is that the Iranians point to this coverage and say “look, even your own media is saying you should give up!” This adds pressure on our own government to rush to a sub-optimal deal. It would be great if news organizations stuck to reporting facts and context and kept their opinions to themselves. Twenty-four hours a day is a lot of air time to fill, and when you don’t have enough material, you fill in the gaps with stuff that’s maybe not so factual. Then people think that because a news organization broadcast it, it must be true (or it’s the majority opinion). Maybe news channels don’t need to operate around the clock.
All that to say, sit tight. Something will happen soon. Senate and Congressional primaries are happening pretty often now, so gas prices and inflation are about to become frequently mentioned issues. Iran’s economy is on the brink and basic utilities (water and electricity) are about to become even more important in the summer and can’t afford to be down for long. The pressure on both sides to make something happen is starting to build. We’ll have some kind of breakthrough soon.